The financial crisis has passed 60% of Chinese GDP growth next year, or less than 8%

Economists, the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee members yesterday, Fan Gang (18) in an interview with reporters that the international financial crisis should have come 60% of the world economy is likely to have 3-5 years of adjustment.  China's foreign trade conditions in the deteriorating conditions should be actively expand domestic demand.

 The global economy will not be the Great Depression

 Fan Gang pointed out that the financial crisis of the magnitude and impact of more than 1929 economic crisis.  The financial crisis is rooted in current dollar-based free-wheeling monetary and financial systems, the United States to maintain long-term fiscal and trade deficits, leading to the world financial system, a major problem.

 Fan Gang is expected in the next 1-2 years, the United States and Japan of the three major European economies may face negative growth, since there will be 2-3 years, the growth rate of less than 1% of the recession period.  The global economy will face a 3-5 year period of adjustment, but not similar in 1929 after a decade of the Great Depression, the most important reason is that macro-control means of progress and cooperation with governments to resist the crisis.

 Fan Gang said that China's economic growth is facing an unprecedented situation down.  The recent introduction of a series of "capital growth" measures have been put in place in a timely manner.  It is estimated that the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter will be lower than 9% next year may be lower than 8%, if not less than 8 percent very good.  The year after that, China's economic growth is likely to return to 8% -9% of the potential for the normal growth range.

 Some of the financial crisis facing difficulties in international institutions.  Fan Gang said that China's financial industry, and finance other high-end service industries also involve several stages of development, "hunters" Wall Street financial assets to a certain risk, but some may consider the acquisition of resources and manufacturing industries, such as international commodity prices have increased Strategic crude oil reserves, and so on.

 By stimulating domestic demand, investments

 Fan Gang believes that the future of China's macro-control should be the direction when, as well as expanding domestic demand-oriented.  Mainly through the expansion of domestic demand, both investment and consumption.  At present, consumption is difficult to start the rapid effect, stimulating domestic demand, the main channel for investment.  40% of our investment for enterprises to invest in the current economic downturn in the cycle, partly to maintain the positive growth is ideal; 30% for infrastructure investment, government investment, and the remaining 30% investment in real estate development.  "The current macro-control, mainly driven by infrastructure construction and investment in real estate development as the goal."

 He said that China is still in the development of infrastructure in the early and increase the railway, urban public transport and Securities rural infrastructure such as road construction, which can hinder the development of the original negative externalities are turned into the outside, so as to release more efficient.  As for the expenditure of funds sources, China is the world's lowest rate of debt, could be considered next year to issue 750,000,000,000 yuan of treasury bonds, financial debt ratio is still so only about 3%.  Fan Gang believes that the current constraints consumption growth is not an important factor in the savings rate and the ratio of consumption rate, but due to the existence of a large number of corporate profit, the disposable income of residents account for the gradual decline in the proportion of GDP.  Increase the effective income residents need to push forward the progressive taxation and income distribution system reform, but the short-term effect may be difficult.  In addition, through tax cuts and increase transfer payments to promote the transfer of the relationship between the social security of migrant workers, etc., to increase the effective income residents.

 Turning to foreign trade, Fan Gang believes that the financial crisis on China's impact on the real economy has only just begun.  Although still relatively fast growth in foreign trade, but may decline next year.  China's future is still possible to maintain the inflow of capital, because our country is still the best in the world economy.

 Macro-control should be counter-cyclical as the core

 Fan Gang pointed out that if no new credit card crisis, the financial crisis should have come 60%.  The lesson of this crisis, including the following six aspects: the bubble burst sooner or later; to prevent excessive debt, excessive leverage; macro-control should be the focus of anti-foam; the service industry to service industry, to prevent the "catch-up service industries"; China's financial reform And development should focus on the basis of the system; the international monetary and financial system is fundamentally flawed.

 Fan Gang believe that the macro-control should be counter-cyclical policy at the core, to prevent the bubble, the provision of public services, smoothing the business cycle.  China's service sector in the development of high-end, high-tech industry, manufacturing and other fields should not be suppressed.  Despite the current decline in the world economy, but ordinary consumer goods has been less affected, partly as a result of consumption may substitute for high-end products to maintain growth.  If our country does not maintain this market, may be replaced by other countries such as India.